Hot Stove League Update: Cardinals Trade Sonny Gray....to the Red Sox

 The Chaim Bloom Cardinals rebuild started in earnest with a salary dump trade of Sonny Gray to the Red Sox for two pitching prospects plus another PTBNL or cash.  Speaking of cash, the Cardinals are sending $20 M to the Red Sox to cover part of Gray's hefty salary, more on that later.  Let's break down the players involved first:

Sonny Gray RHP.  DOB:  11/7/1989.  5' 10", 190 lbs.  14-8, 4.28, 180.2 IP, 10.01 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, 1.28 GB/FB.  Contract:  1 Yr/$35 M with $5 M buyout on a $30 M club option for 2027(Reworked in the trade to 1 yr/$31 M with a $10 M buyout on a mutual option for for 2027).

Gray's main positive is durability.  He averaged 177 IP over his last 3 seasons.  His K and BB rates remained strong but his ERA bumped up to the third highest of his career due to a .329 BABIP.  On the surface you might think he is due for a positive regression but he also had a FB/GB, HR/FB and Hard Hit% significantly higher than his career averages.  

Richard Fitts RHP.  DOB:  12/17/1999.  6' 3", 230 lbs.  2-4, 5.00, 45 IP, 8.00 K/9, 3.20 BB/9.  Pre-arbitration, 2 options.

2021 6'th round draft pick out of Auburn. Big body with a 95 MPH FB.  Has been a SP but may have more of a Reliever profile.  

Brandon Clarke LHP.  DOB:  4/10/2003.  6' 4", 220 lbs.  A/A+:  0-3, 4.03, 38 IP, 14.21 K/9, 6.39 K/9, 2.42 GB/FB.  Rule 5 eligible Dec. 2027.

Former 5'th round draft pick. Big lefty with tremendous stuff but has a wild hair up his nose.  Reliever profile.  

Comment:  Gray may be entering the the downside of his career With the money the Cardinals are including in the deal, Gray will essentially cost the BoSox $21 M for one season since mutual options are almost never exercised but both parties.  Gray may be entering the the downside of his career, but Sox are getting a reliable SP who will grind out innings and keep them in most games at a reasonable price.  Since this was mainly a salary dump by the Cardinals they get a couple of pitching prospects who profile as relievers but likely no future stars.  

The Giants were rumored to be interested in Gray at last year's trade deadline which led to speculation they may pursue a trade for him this offseason.  I have a feeling his ship sailed away from San Francisco when Bob Melvin, his former manager with the A's was fired.  I think the Giants can find as good or better SP option for a lower price this offseason.

Hot Stove League Update: Mets and Rangers Trade Contracts

This trade seems to be more of a contract trade than a player trade although it makes some sense as a player challenge trade too Yesterday, the Rangers sent Marcus Semien 2B and his 3 yr/$72 M remaining contract to the Mets for Brandon Nimmo OF and the remaining 5 yr/$101.5 M of his contract. Let's break it down into components:

Mets take:

Marcus Semien 2B.  DOB:  9/17/1990.  B-R, T-R.  6' 0", 195 lbs.  Contract:  7 yr/$175 M, now 3 yr/$72 M, $24 M AAV.

2025:  .230/.305/.364, 15 HR, 11 SB, 9.4 BB%, 17.4 K%, 127 PA, 2.1 fWAR.  

Fangraphs still rates Semien as a plus defender but the bat has gone relatively cold over the past two seasons and the 3 yr sequence of this fWAR value is 6.5, 4.3, 2.1.  Note that part of his down season was injury related and his Steamer projection for 2026 is a small rebound to 3.1 fWAR which is valued close to his AAV.

Rangers Get:

Brandon Nimmo OF.  DOB:  3/27/1993.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 206 lbs. Contract:  8 yr/$162 M, now 5 yr/$101.5 M, $19.25 M AAV(Rangers get $5 M from Mets to partially offset the contract difference).

2025:  .262/.324/.436, 25 HR, 13 SB, 7.7 BB%, 21.6 K%, 587 PA, 3.0 fWAR.  

Nimmo is not a CF anymore but he is still a good fielder in LF.  His fWAR value peaked at 5.5 in 2022 then dropped to 4.2, 2.8, 3.0.  FWIW his Steamer projection for 2026 is 2.5 fWAR.  

There are some convoluted reasons why this trade helps balance both rosters.  Beyond that, the Mets are taking on a higher AAV for a shorter duration while the Rangers lower their AAV but take on a longer commitment.  Both players will be the same age(38) at the end of their respective contracts.  The trade appears to be even although I can see Semien bouncing back from his injury more easily than Nimmo changing his career trajectory.

Scouting the 2026 Draft: Grady Emerson

Grady Emerson SS, HS.  DOB:  2/21/2008.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 180 lbs.  

Emerson is a HS SS with a sweet swing and tools to play shortstop at the MLB level.  He has been on scouting radars since was 14 years old.  He was on both 15U and 18 U Team USA twice.  He bats from the left side with a wide stance and a quick swing that goes direct to the ball.  He does a good job of keepin his elbows bent which helps him get around on inside stuff but he uses all fields with gap power.  He still has a young looking body which should fill out and gain more power with maturity and showed present power in the HS HR Derby.  He comps himself to Corey Seager SS.  Committed to Texas but should challenge for the #1 overall pick in the draft.

Hot Stove League Update: Non-Tender Day

Today was the last day for teams to offer, or tender, contracts to players who are eligible for arbitration.  In modern baseball vernacular, if a player is not offered a contract they are non-tendered which is not unlike being DFA'd.  Historically the Giants are risk averse with their approach to arbitration and try to come to terms with a player before they have to tender a contract that may lead to an arbitration hearing.  Most of the time when they do tender a contract they end up coming to terms with the player before it gets to the hearing stage, usually coming close to splitting the difference between the team offer and the player ask.

This year just 3 Giants players are eligible for arbitration:  Andrew Knizner C, Joey Lucchesi LHP and J. T. Brubaker RHP.  I expected them to reach agreement with all three prior to the tender deadline and keep them on the roster.  Well, it didn't go down that way.  The Giants kicked off the day my making an early MLBTR headline by acquiring Joey Wiemer OF for cash considerations and DFA'ing Knizner.  They later non-tendered Knizner for good measure.  I was really surprised they let Knizner go as I thought he did a respectable job as backup catcher last season.  While backup catcher is far from the most important role on the roster, Its not that easy to find good ones as we have seen with the Giants over the past several seasons.  The acquisition of Wiemer is also surprising as it appears to add to the Giants already large logjam of fringy outfielders.  More on that later. 

Letting Joey Lucchesi go was a bit of a surprise given that his MLBTR projected arbitration salary of $2 M is not at all out of line for a versatile lefty reliever.  Maybe Buster feels secure enough with Erik Miller LHP and Matt Gage LHP that he felt he didn't need Lucchesi or maybe he has another lefty bullpen option in mind?

Several analysts thought Brubaker was the most likely to be non-tendered.  I wasn't buying that as he was a decent innings-eating SP before missing the better parts of two seasons with an injury. The Giants ran out of SP innings last season and need to find innings this offseason more than they need a top-end SP.  In today's SP pitching market, Brubaker is dirt cheap and can compete for a #5 SP or for a Jakob Junis/Yusmeiro Petit type swingman role.  

So who is Joey Wiemer and how does he fit into the Giants plans?  That's a great question as there was already no shortage of outfielders on the 40-man roster.  Let's take a look at his profile:

Joey Wiemer OF.  DOB:  2/11/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6' 4", 226 lbs.  2020 4'th round draft pick by Brewers.  No options but pre-arbitration.  

2023:  .204/.283/.362, 13 HR, 11 SB, 8.8 BB%, 28.3 K%, 410 PA.

2024:  .154/.214/.154, 7.1 BB%, 32.1 K%, 28 PA.

2025(MLB):  .236/.279/.436, 3 HR, 3.3 BB%, 37.1 K%, 61 PA.  

2025(MiLB):  .203/.315/.357, 11 HR, 13 SB, 12.2 BB%, 25.8 K%, 337 PA.

Wow!  That's not exactly the high contact profile Buster says he thinks Oracle Park favors.  He is versatile and is reputed to be an above average defender at all 3 OF spots and has a little power and speed but is that enough to put up with his rather extreme swing and miss tendency?  The Giants now have 10 outfielders on the 40-man roster at least four of whom are out of options.  Something has to give.  You have to think with the acquisitions of Justin Dean and Joey Wiemer that Luis Matos, Marco Luciano and possibly Jerar Encarnacion are not figuring into the Giants plans for next season.

Blogger's Note: Poll Results

I appreciate the engagement of the 20 people who responded to the poll.  The question was, Should We Keep the Google AI Links in the Posts?  The final tally is....

Yes:  12

No:  6

Of the 12 who answered Yes, 2 said they don't personally use it but think we should keep it. Of the 6 who answered No, 3 said they don't use it or like it but it's OK to stay if other's want to keep it. 

The final verdict is we will keep it for now.  I will see if I can tinker with it to make is more user-friendly and relevant.  I have long wanted for readers to be able to link to a Bio/Stats page by clicking on the name of a player but was never able to figure out how to do it on Blogger.  When Blogger offered this free option I saw it was an easy solution to that wish.  I admit I was a surprised at some of the links, especially ones that tell me some clever phrase I made up or borrowed is not really a thing.  I am also surprised that many players who do have bios and stat pages on sites like Baseball Reference, MLB or Fangraphs don't link.  What's that about?  I am not sure what readers see when they click on the links but in addition to a Google AI summary, I also see links to player's bio pages on multiple websites and readers can choose which site they prefer to use.  To me that's enough of a plus that it's worth keeping and trying to improve it.  

I do want to assure readers who are dismayed at what AI has done to social media this is not that.  I am NOT using AI to write my posts.  Every word I write is mine and mine alone.  If I borrow a clever phrase like "shopping the Brebbia Aisle" I always try to give credit where it's due and tell you where I got if from.  But yes, I hate AI generated content as much as all of you and you can generally spot it from the first sentence or two.  The sentences are too cleverly written with lots of "flowery" language but extremely superficial content with little to no useful or new information.  I can assure you won't see that on this blog. I will shut it down before I resort to that lazy content production.  

Again, thanks to everybody who reads and comments.  You all are a big part of what makes this blog great.

Hot Stove League Update: Roster Churning On Rule 5 Draft Protection Day

Yesterday was the last day to players to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 Draft which goes down on the last day of the Winter Meetings.  It's a happy day for players who get added and a scary one for players who get dropped into the DFA death loop.  While it's not unheard of for a DFA'd player to find a better situation and thrive in it, for the vast majority, this day essentially marks the end of their hopes for a career in major league baseball.  The process itself contributes to that.  I'm not saying Carson Ragsdale RHP's MLB career hopes are over but bouncing around to the fringes of the system getting claimed, dropped and reclaimed harms his development. 

It's way beyond the scope of this blog to review the myriads of 40-man roster adds and DFA's from yesterday but some of the recognizable names dropped include J J Bleday OF(A's), Christopher Morel OF(Rays), Jake Fraley OF(Rays), Taylor Saucedo LHP(Mariners), Jason Foley RHP(Tigers) and Ramon Urias IF(Astros).  Of that group I could see the Giants being interested in Foley who earned 28 Saves with a 3.15 ERA last season and has a MLBTR Projected Salary of $3.15 M in his first season of arbitration eligibility.

The Giants did not make any moves which either means they do not see any of their Rule 5 Draft Eligible prospects worthy or protection or that they really don't want to lose anyone currently on the 40-man roster without some type of compensation.  Don't forget top prospect Bryce Eldridge 1B/DH and Drew Gilbert OF were added late last season although Eldridge would not have needed protection had he not already been added.  The Giants 40-man roster is full so they won't participate in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft.  They have something like 25 Rule 5 Draft Eligible players in their system so are at risk for losing some of those.  Off the top of my head none of those at-risk players are likely to stay on a MLB roster for a full season so are unlikely to be lost to the Giants forever.  They could lose some in the minor league phase but could also select some players from other teams to help fill out minor league rosters.

Tuesday was the deadline for players to accept Qualifying Offers.  Four players accepted:  Trent Grisham OF(Yankees), Gleyber Torres 2B(Tigers), Shota Imanaga LHP(Cubs), Brandon Woodruff RHP(Brewers).  All four play positions the Giants can use upgrades in.  Nine players declined their offers:  Kyle Schwarber DH(Phillies), Kyle Tucker RF(Cubs), Ranger Suarez LHP(Phillies), Framber Valdez LHP(Astros), Bo Bichette SS/2B(Blue Jays), Dylan Cease RHP(Padres), Edwin Diaz RHP(Mets), Zac Gallen RHP(D'Backs), Michael King RHP(Padres).  While several of those players would look great in a Giants uniform, there are plenty of free agents who can help the Giants next season without a QO attached.

While the Giants continue to fill out their coaching staff for next season, several teams got a jump on the Hot Stove League with trades and signings:

The Angels traded Taylor Ward OF, who was an arbitration non-tender candidate, to the Orioles for Grayson Rodriguez RHP.  Ward hit 36 home runs with 100 RBI's but that came with a low BA and high K rate.  His MLBTR predicted arbitration salary is $13.7 M.  Rodriguez was a rising star before missing the 2025 season with arm injuries and underwent surgery to remove a bone spur in the elbow.  The Angels expect him to be ready for spring training.  I am less sure of a pitcher returning to full strength after this surgery than with Tommy John surgery so the Angels are taking a risk here but the upside is huge.  Rodriguez is still pre-arbitration.

The Astros traded Forever Giant Mauricio Dubon UT to the Braves for Nick Allen SS.  Dubon is a better hitter and more versatile than Allen, but Allen is a superior defensive SS.  Both players are eligible for arbitration with MLBTR projected salaries of $5.8 M for Dubon and $1.5 M for Allen.

The Braves re-signed Raisel Iglesias RHP to a 1 yr/$16 M contract.  Where this move impacts the Giants is it sets the market for veteran Closers, something the Giants are in desperate need of.  Iglesias was terrible for the first two months of last season but was one of the best Closers in MLB over the final 4 months.  He is probably the floor of what the top available closers will get on the free agent market.  When Buster Posey was asked point blank if the Giants were going to target an established Closer or leave the position open to competition, Buster said probably more the latter.  Perhaps the Mark Melancon RHP experience is still fresh in his mind?

Blogger's Note: Poll

 Hey Team!  I got a note from a concerned reader who is not diggin' the AI links.  I was hoping the links would make it easier for folks to look up stats ons specific players but I agree sometimes the links are to things that are irrelevant or show contempt for our reader's level of knowledge and it often fails to link to less well-known players who are more likely to be the ones folks want to look up.  So, I am going to use a rudimentary poll to help guide decisionmaking.  In the comments please post Yes if you would like to see the links continue and No if you want them to go away.  It's OK to add some comments as to why you have your opinion.  Please try to avoid long rants.

As always, thanks for reading and commenting, everybody!