Wednesday, February 10, 2016

DrB's 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #49 Kelvin Beltre; #50 Gustavo Cabrera

Kelvin Beltre, SS.  B-R, T-R.  DOB:  9/25/1996.  5'11", 170 lbs.

2014 DSL:  .235/.430/.441, 3 HR, 7 SB, 23.7 BB%, 11.8 K%, 93 PA.
2015 AZL:  .239/.375/.348, 1 HR, 3 SB, 14.3 BB%, 30.4 K%, 56 PA.

Gustavo Cabrera, OF.  B-R, T-R.  DOB:  1/23/1996.  6'2", 190 lbs.

2013 DSL:  .247/.379/.360, 2 HR, 21 SB, 13.1 BB%, 23/6 K%, 229 PA.
2015 AZL:  .286/.375/.571, 3B, 12.5 BB%, 25 K%, 8 PA.

I wanted to round out the 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects with a couple of guys who would almost certainly be ranked a lot higher, possibly top 10, if they had stayed on the field.  They are both 5 tool players with tremendous upside, both have lost a lot of playing time to injury and both are still young enough to make up the lost time if they can stay on the field in 2016.  Cabrera has been particularly snakebitten, suffering a horrific freak injury to his right hand after his first pro season which cost him the entire 2014 season and threatened to keep him from ever playing again.  Then, in his second game of 2015, he ran out a triple, left the game and never returned for the rest of the season.  I have never seen a report of what the injury was.  Hammy tear?  Reinjury to the hand?  He was activated from the7 day DL and place on the Augusta roster on 9/24/2015, so presumably he's going to be ready to go in the spring.

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Fantasy Focus: 2016 Breadkout OF's- Michael Conforto, Mikie Mahtook, Aaron Altherr

Michael Conforto, OF.  B-L, T-R.  DOB:  3/1/1993.  6'1", 215 lbs.  Organization:  Mets

2015:  .270/335/.506, 14 2B, 9 HR, 8.8 BB%, 20.1 K%, 194 PA.

I've really liked Conforto from before he was drafted.  Woulda been happy for him to be a Giant.  Dude may not be the best fielder around, but the bat is legit.  There is no reason why you cannot multiply those counting stats by 3 and get a pretty close approximation to what he can do in a full season, well, that 's if the Mets don't platoon him somehow.

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Mikie Mahtook, OF.  B-R, T-R.   DOB:  11/30/1989.  6'1", 200 lbs.  Organization:  Rays

2015:  .295/.351/.619, 9 HR, 4 SB, 5.2 BB%, 27 K%, 115 PA.

Mahtook is a 5 tool player I've liked since he was in college, I think at LSU.  No, he's not going to hit 54 HR's next season, and the Rays OF situation is very crowded, but gotta love what those numbers project to over a full season of play.

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Aaron Altherr, OF.  B-R, T-R.  DOB:  1/14/1991.  6'5", 215 lbs.  Organization:  Phillies

.241/.338/.489, 11 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 6 SB, 9.9 BB%, 25.5 K%, 161 PA.

Altherr might be better described as a Sleeper than a Breakout Candidate.  He's a big kid who has had struggles with contact in the minors, as you might expect for a guy that tall.  He's a 5 tool dude, though with excellent plate discipline and a manageable K rate.  He'll get to play with Philly rebuilding.  Could very easily end up with 20 dingers and 20 SB's.

DrB's 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #48 Steven Okert

Steven Okert, LHP.  DOB:  7/9/1991.  6'3", 210 lbs.

AAA:  5-3, 3.82, 61.1 IP, 10.13 K/9, 4.26 BB/9.

Last year at this time, Steven Okert was THE guy.  The guy who was going to succeed Jeremy Affeldt.  Then last season happened and Josh Osich rocketed past him to establish himself as that guy.  At first glance, Okert's numbers don't look that bad, especially considering he was pitching in the PCL.  Yeah, the BB's are up there, but so are the K's and a 3.82 ERA is actually pretty good for the PCL.  Then you  look at his monthly splits and realize he had a ghastly middle of the season.  After getting off to a great start in April, his ERA ballooned to 5.68 in May and was even worse with a 6.30 in June.  He got a bit better in July with a 4.76, but by that time Osich was on the fast track.  His 1.26 in August was back to his expected standards, but then he gave up 2 runs in 3 IP in September to finish on a not-so-great note.

If you look at his K rate, the league he was pitching in and his August numbers, you realize Okert still has it in him to be a top lefty reliever.  He also had a fairly big L-R split, so maybe his future is more of a lefty specialist than the multi-inning guy he looked like last year.  What he needs to do is forget about those bad months last year, get back into his groove and be ready when something opens up at the big league level.  One of the lefties could stink it up.  Someone could get injured.  The Giants have gone with 3 lefty relievers at times in the past or they could go with 13 pitchers for awhile.  There will be opportunities, but there will also be competition for those same opportunities.  2016 will be a pivotal season for Okert.

Monday, February 8, 2016

Fantasy Focus: 2016 Breakout Shortstop- Addison Russell

Addison Russell, SS.  B-R, T-R.  DOB:  1/23/1994.  6'0", 195 lbs.  Organization: Cubs

2015:  .242/.307/.389, 29 2B, 13 HR, 8.0 BB%, 28.5 K%.

Addison Russell has been an acclaimed high-ceiling prospect for awhile now.  I'm not sure what Billy Beane was thinking when he let Russell go to the Cubs in the Samardzija trade, but it is increasingly looking like Russell will make Trader Billy regret that deal.  Those are decent enough numbers from 2015 put up while mostly playing 2B.  The Cubbies liked Russell so much they traded away Starlin Castro to make room at SS for him.  He'll have Ben Zobrist helping him out at 2B.  The numbers the Cubs may be looking at is the BA which increased from .226 to .259 in the second half of 2015 and the K rate which dropped from over 30% to around 25%.  Add in that 2016 will be just his age 22 season when players are generally on a steep part of their learning curve and you have a real breakout possibility.

BTW, I also think Carlos Correa is going to break out, but he's going to be no lower than a 2'nd round fantasy draftee this year, so he does not need any publicity.

DrB's 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #47 Mac Marshall

Mac Marshall, LHP.  DOB:  1/27/1996.  6'0", 180 lbs.

Rookie AZL:  0-0, 2.57, 7 IP, 14.14 K/9, 6.43 BB/9, GO/AO= 1.44.
Short Season:  0-0, 6.59, 13.2 IP, 11.85 K/9, 6.59 BB/9, GO/AO= 1.25.

Mac Marshall has been on scouting radars since before the 2014 draft.  He was a later round pick by the Houston Astros out of HS, but had his promised over-slot bonus blown up by the Brady Aiken mess.  At first, he enrolled at LSU which would have prevented him from being drafted again for 3 years.  After about a month, he left LSU and enrolled in a JC which made him draft eligible for 2015.  The Giants took him in Round 4.  He showed flashes of brilliance but also inconsistency in throwing strikes.  He got promoted to Salem-Keizer, but was shut down and later re-appeared in Arizona for his last 2 appearances.  It should be noted that 5 of his 15 BB's came in 1 game. It should also be noted that all of this is a very small sample size.

Marshall throws both a 4 seam and 2 seam FB. He generally sits 88-92 with the FB but can crank it up to 94.  One thing I like about him is his best pitch is his changeup that has excellent drop and fade to RH batters.  For most pitchers his age, the changeup is just starting to take shape, if they have one at all.  Augusta would seem to be the logical assignment for him to start 2016, but it may depend on his command in spring training.  Ceiling appears to be #3 SP with ETA 2019 or 2020.  Some analysts rank him higher.  I want to see him show better consistency first.  Again, having 3 young pitchers like Bolivar, Webb and Marshall this low on the list tells you how deep the Giants farm system is, even if you think all 3 should be ranked a bit higher.

Sunday, February 7, 2016

Fantasy Focus: 2016 Breakout Third Basemen- Maikel Franco

Maikel Franco, 3B.  B-R, T-R.  DOB:  8/26/1992.  6'1", 180 lbs.  Organization:  Phillies.

2015:  .280/.343/.497, 22 2B, 14 HR, 7.8 BB%, 15.5 K%, 335 PA.

Maikel Franco had to wait until mid-May of last year for callup to the majors, a fact that he has filed a grievance with MLB over.  He pretty much raked from that point until August 18 when he suffered a wrist fracture.   He eventually returned to play the final 3 games of the season, so presumably he is healthy for 2015.  He looks like another player who just needs to stay healthy and accumulate the PA's to have his breakout season.  The Phillies won't be a good team in 2016, but that's mostly due to the pitching.  The lineup actually looks like it might not be half bad, so it should not drag Franco's R and RBI totals down too much.  The K and BB numbers are solid so unless the wrist injury lingers, he should be able to continue and build on the foundation he put down in 2015.  You won't draft him ahead of a Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado or Kris Bryant, but if you miss out on the elite guys, Franco should give you your money's worth and more later in the draft.

DrB's 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #46 Logan Webb

Logan Webb, RHP.  DOB:  11/18/1996.  6'2", 195 lbs.

Short Season:  3-6, 4.92, 60.1 IP, 5.97 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, GO/AO= 1.67.

This line may not look to impressive at first glance but let me break it down a bit for you.  First of all, Webb was competing at age 18 with players whose average age was about 3 years older than he, players like Dansby Swanson, the #1 overall draft pick from an elite college program who could be in the major leagues as soon as this season.   The other take away point is Webb started the season slowly with a K/BB of 7/7 in 20 IP in his first 4 appearances.  After that, he struck out 33 against 9 BB's in 40.1 IP for a 7.38 K/9 and a 1.98 BB/9.  And don't overlook that excellent groundball rate.

I don't really have a current scouting report on Webb.  He hit 96 MPH in high school before the draft, but reportedly was lower after.  In several videos posted on the internet I would estimate that he was hitting the mid-90's with the FB, but it is very hard to judge velocity without radar gun measurements.  Those videos also show a terrific breaking ball with excellent vertical depth as well as a diving changeup that may be a split-change.

I expect we will see Logan Webb in the Augusta rotation this spring for his age 19 season where he will be pitching in a much more pitching-friendly environment with players approximately the same age as the NWL.  A strong 2016 season would really boost his stock into the upper levels of the Giants Top 50 Prospects.  Ceiling is hard to project at this point.  I would say he probably best profiles as a future #3 SP.  ETA is probably 2019 at the earliest, more likely 2020.