Wednesday, January 14, 2015

DrB's 2015 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #21 Michael Santos

Michael Santos, RHP.  DOB:  5/29/1995.  6'4", 170 lbs.

2013 DSL:  1-2, 2.75, 19.2 IP, 2.75 BB/9, 8.24 K/9, 1.29 GO/AO
2014 AZL:  4-3, 2.86, 59.2 IP, 1.96 BB/9, 7.54 K/9, 1.81 GO/AO

Michael Santos was signed as an international FA in May 2012 for $250 K.  He did not have a lot of meat on his bones so the Giants held him out of competition in 2012 to concentrate on a strengthening program.  He made 4 starts for the DSL Giants in 2013 before being shut down again for more strengthening.  He completed the 2014 short season in Arizona while being held to a 5 inning limit.  He pitched the full 5 innings in all but one of his starts going 4.2 innings in the other one.  His last start of the season was his best as he allowed 0 runs on 3 hits with 1 BB and 6 K's in 5 IP.

Conner Penfold again provides a scouting report and video from Arizona.  Santos is definitely a tall drink of water, but looks like he probably weighs more than 170 lbs.  The frame looks big enough to fill out some more.  Conner reports seeing both a 4 and 2 seam FB that went 90-93 MPH with command to both sides of the plate.  Santos also has a big slow sweeping curveball in the high 70's that Conner rated as a plus pitch.  He also showed a changeup with some downward bite.  The repertoire and stat lines look a lot like Clayton Blackburn's.  He would probably benefit from an intermediate velocity pitch such as a slider or cutter.  The Giants think there is more in the tank velocity-wise as he further fills out his frame.  He should move up to Augusta as a 20 year old for 2015.

22 comments:

  1. This sounds like an exciting young prospect. Good to hear. Hope he can make some waves in 2015.

    what thoughts does the local union have on Allen Craig and Dexter Fowler?

    cost and willingness to pay? Thanks.

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    1. There are some people who people that Craig's left foot injury will plague him the rest of his career. It is scary to want to acquire him because of that. However, his contract is team friendly and he can get his career back on track there is a ton of value there.

      Fowler looked really promising after his 2012 season. He works out with Barry Bonds and I think he was going to really break through. However, the last 2 years he has regressed and averaging less than 120 games a year. He is still young and could break out but there is considerable risk. I feel he isn't much of an upgrade from Blanco at the present time.

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    2. Fowler had an OPS+ of 119 in about 500 PAs last year, which is an upgrade from Blanco, and Pagan.

      I just think the outfield is in serious need of help. As soon as Pagan goes down and Blanco goes to center, Giants are dealing with pretty close to replacement level options and that's not good folks.

      We'll see how Craig looks and spring and what the Sox want to do.

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    3. In his years as a starter Fowler has never has a positive defensive fWAR. Last year he had a -20.something with the Astros, and Steamer projects -11.something next year. I'd be wary of putting someone in LF who weakens our defense unless he were to be terrific at the plate, which Fowler hasn't been so far.

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    4. Fowler can't stay healthy. He is also a Coors Field creation. Pass, with prejudice.

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    5. Isn't OPS+ park adjusted. As for defense, one might assume it would look better in left.

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    6. OPS+ is park adjusted, but its an estimate, not a reality. The cold hard reality is trying to get a ball into Triples Alley, or a launching park. Whatever division you play in, that's where you play. Half the home games is a big deal that a statistical formula can only make so much sense of.

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    7. whatever it is you're trying to say, the main driver of his OPS+ was his .375 OBP

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    8. Snarky anons... life never changes... Actually, his home slash of 294/381/448 for a sOPS+ of 133 is driving that OPS+ score. He slugged 356 in away games. That's... weak. Like having an anon handle.

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    9. what's driving his offense is his BABIP of over .350. he has typically had a high BABIP, which suggests that he hits the ball hard, but one might be suspicious of a slash line that hangs on his being able to keep up that anomalous kind of BABIP.

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    10. Personally, I'm simply not interested in any more one-year rentals. The more valuable they'd be to us, the more they'll cost us (that I worry we can hardly afford to part with). The less they help, then obviously the less I want them. My wish: 2-3+ years of cost-control, preferably still in arb, or lower than FA market rate salary. Most preferably under 29 years old. My opinion, no to Dexter Fowler. And yeah, injuries seem to come along with him: finger, wrist, back, knee, intercostal... Has he ended each of the last two seasons sitting out? I also don't think he's really available.

      And then... there's this thing. Anybody care to share how he's fared against Kershaw? Just asking. I seem to recall Adam Dunn, Chris Denorfia, and Dexter Fowler from when I reviewed B-R's Play Index a long while back.

      I'd prefer to try to get Andrew Aplin from HOU for fringe prospects (+ maybe one key piece?). IMO, Aplin is a good sleeper, that I think could really develop soon enough. YMMV. Cheers.

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    11. Not much of a BA in the upper minors so far, but very good BB/K ratio, a la Panik, and strong OBP, for Aplin. Was he demoted from AAA to AA last season?

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  2. How far do you thin k he could jump on this list next season? Seems like he may have a higher ceiling than blackburn.

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    1. Depends on how much tail he kicks next year.

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    2. I can definitely see him adding some velocity to his fastball if he puts on some muscle. If he does, I think he's got a pretty decent ceiling. If not, maybe he's another Kendry Flores type? I like that curveball. For a kid in rookie ball, he looks pretty polished to me.

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    3. I think Santos has way more potential than Blackburn, but Clayton has had success at levels that Santos hasn't yet reached. I agree, though; I think Santos will easily be Top 10 prospect this time next year.

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  3. beane just flipped escobar for clippard

    i want this guy to manage my fantasy league team

    bacci

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    1. Clippard is nasty. That should help their pen quite a bit. Not sure what Nats are doing though. Rizzo must be up to something bigger.

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    2. Beane is pursuing the girl who got away: a reliable pen. He really doesn't know how to do it right...

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    3. Maybe Jordan Zimmerman too. Not sure if Marcus Semien is cut out to be an everyday SS. But maybe Jed Lowrie wasnt' either.

      Would Sabean entertain sending Adrianza to Oakland?

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    4. I'm sure Sabes would entertain sending Adrianza anywhere if he got the right return in the trade.

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